Mala macro, difícil asimilación

La semana que comienza lo hace como lo hizo anterior con malos datos macro en Europa. Esto presiona a la baja al Euro y a los mercados bursátiles europeos. Al alza se mueven los activos refugio como el Dólar, Yen y Franco suizo, bonos del Tesoro USA, Bund y oro.
 
Hoy, hemos conocido los datos de los PMIs del sector servicios para el conjunto de la Zona Euro y sus principales Estados miembros. La foto que nos deja este seguido indicador adelantado es casi la misma que nos dejó la semana pasada el PMI manufacturero se corrobora la desaceleración de la actividad en la Zona Euro y se mantienen las disparidades regionales.
 
El PMI servicios de agosto de la Zona Euro sale igual que el dato preliminar de 51,5 publicado hace un par de semanas. Eso si, este dato marca un mínimo de 28 meses, es el nivel más bajo desde septiembre de 2009.
 
Por su parte el PMI compuesto de la Zona Euro, aquel que hace la media de los sectores manufacturero y de servicios, retrocede en agosto hasta un mínimo de 2 años en 50,7. El dato preliminar y el del mes anterior fueron de 51,1.
 
Al analizar los distintos Estados miembros observamos un fuerte descenso del PMI de servicios en España en agosto hasta niveles de 45,2 desde 46,5 de julio. Registra la mayor caída mensual en 20 meses y se trata del nivel más bajo desde 2009. En Alemania el PMI servicios baja hasta 51,1 desde 52,9. Es el peor dato desde octubre de 2009. En Italia el PMI servicios baja dos décimas hasta 48,4. La mejor lectura es la de Francia que sube hasta un máximo de 3 meses en 56,8 desde el dato anterior de 54,2.
 
Hoy, Wall Street está cerrado por la festividad del Día del Trabajo y los analistas tenemos la oportunidad de analizar con detalle el mal informe de empleo de agosto en EE.UU. La creación de empleo no agrícola fue cero cuando la estimación del consenso de mercado era de 68.000. La creación de empleo en el sector privado +17.000 fue neteada por un sector público en el que se perdieron otros 17.000 puestos de trabajo. La tasa de desempleo se mantuvo en el 9,1%, como se esperaba. El informe también da señales preocupantes como la bajada de la duración media de la semana laboral y de la caída en los ingresos medios por hora.
 
En su conjunto, el informe de empleo en EE.UU. es extremadamente débil y nos muestra la imposibilidad de crear empleo en un mes que suele ser bastante propicio. Se estima que el otoño pude ser aún peor. Por esta razón, Obama va a poner en marcha una serie de medidas encaminadas a generar empleo. Si se tiene en cuenta el ‘lag’ entre la implementación de esta medida y su puesta en marcha de una manera efectiva somos de la opinión de que la tasa de paro en USA puede volver hacia el 9,5% con cierta rapidez. Ojala nos equivoquemos...
 
En el mercado de divisas lo más destacado que vemos es el repunte de la aversión al riesgo que favorece al Dólar, al Yen y en especial al Francosuizo . La divisa helvética sigue avanzando y está neteando en gran parte sus recientes pérdidas. El dinero miedoso vuelve al refugio del Franco. En el resto de cruces vemos que los del ‘carry trade’ ceden enteros sobre todo frente al Yen, en especial el Kiwi.
 
El Euro/Dólar sigue débil y hoy lo hemos analizado con detalle. Si esperamos que rebote...
 
En el mercado de deuda soberana los diferenciales de deuda en Europa, medidos entre la periferia y los activos alemanes, han visto el enésimo repunte tras conocerse numerosas noticias negativas desde la periferia europea. Al sospechoso habitual, Grecia, se le unen España e Italia.
 
En estos momentos, la TIR del bono español a 10 años se va hasta el 5,232% y la del Bund hasta el 1,992%. La prima de riesgo, medida a través del diferencial Bono-Bund se va hasta los 327 puntos básicos desde los 300 p.b. de nuestro cierre del viernes. Se especula que el BCE ha salido de nuevo al rescate de Italia y España comprando deuda en el mercado secundario...
 
La onza de oro ha superado de nuevo los $1.900. La superación de esta zona creemos que le puede abrir el camino para buscar el máximo histórico, en términos nominales, en los $1.912,40 que alcanzó a primeros de agosto.

LATEST MARKET NEWs for AUDUSD, EURUSD and USDJPY

AUDUSD:  The Australian dollar was stronger late Thursday supported by a batch of solid data which helped lift the gloom that has hung over the economy in recent weeks.

News on the Chinese economy was also more upbeat, giving the currency additional zest. China's official Purchasing Managers Index rose slightly in August, posting its first gain since March.

China's PMI rose to 50.9 in August compared with 50.7 in July, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which issues the data with the National Bureau of Statistics.

We expect a range for today in AUDUSD rate of 1.0660 to 1.0760 (We set to short the pair at 1.0760, stop loss at 1.0820, target at 1.0710, 1.0680 and 1.0630)

EURUSD:  The euro came under significant pressure in European trading hours Thursday after a disastrous set of euro-zone manufacturing surveys and continued political wrangling over Greece's debt reignited concerns about the 17-country bloc, sending investors rushing to the safety of the Swiss franc.

Since European trading got underway the euro has been under pressure, initially weakening on a International Monetary Fund report that European banks' balance sheets have suffered serious damage from their holdings of troubled euro-zone sovereign debt.

In addition, sources said Greece's budget deficit could exceed 8.5% of gross domestic product this year, well above the official forecast of 7.6%. What's more, euro-zone finance ministers are still struggling to reach an agreement on the details of possible securities for bailout loans for Greece

We expect a range for today in EURUSD rate of 1.4140 to 1.4340 (We set Limit BUY order at 1.4140, stop loss at 1.4080, target at 1.4180, 1.4230 and 1.4280.  If you intend to entry at the current market 1.4260 ranges, stop loss at 1.4230, target at 1.4310, 1.4350 and 1.4380. Once the pair break above 1.4310, trail stop loss to 1.4260.) 

USDJPY:  The currency swap lines exist to ensure the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank have access to dollar liquidity. The program was restarted as worries rose about European financial markets amid government debt problems.

During the worst part of the financial crisis in 2008 and later, borrowings in the program totalled hundreds of billions, as financial institutions around the world scrambled for dollars.

Since being reintroduced in May 2010, the facility has been little used, although last week financial markets were surprised when the ECB unexpectedly borrowed $500 million in the week ended on Aug. 24. A week before, the Swiss National Bank, which has seen strong inflows into its currency amid market volatility and anxiety, had drawn $200 million.

We expect a range for today in USDJPY rate of 76.40 to 77.10 (We set limit to buy at 76.40, stop loss at 75.80, target at 76.80 to 77.10.)

Swissie Offensive Continues as US Dollar Surges Ahead of NFPs

Daily Winners and Losers

The Swiss franc is the top performer against the greenback for the second consecutive day, advancing nearly 1% an hour into US trade. 2Q GDP out of Switzerland overnight printed at expectations with PMI manufacturing data slightly besting estimates with a print of 51.7 vs. expectations for a read of 51.0. As concerns about a possible SNB intervention ease, the swissie should remain well supported at these levels as the euro comes under pressure on fears of further debt contagion in the region. The USDCHF pair rebounded off of interim resistance at 0.8075 before moving lower, with price action continuing to straddle the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement taken from the July 19th decline at the 0.80-handle. Downside targets are held at 0.7950, the 0.79-figure, and 0.7850. Ultimately, the pair will target the 61.8% retracement at 0.7820. Topside resistance remains at 0.8075 with subsequent ceilings eyed at 0.8130, the 0.82-handle, and 0.8230. Investors are eagerly anticipating tomorrows non-farm payroll data out of the US with a weaker than expected print likely to see haven flows continue to support swissie.

The euro plummeted early in North American trade, sliding more than 0.9% against a stronger greenback. The single currency is likely to remain under pressure as concerns about the European banking sector continue to gather pace. The EURUSD pair broke below the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the July 12th and August 4th troughs at 1.4320 in overnight trade. A stronger than expected print on the US August ISM manufacturing report saw the pair break even lower at 1.4265 with interim targets eyed at the 23.6% extension at 1.4220. Subsequent floors are seen at the 1.42-figure and 1.4160. Topside resistance holds at 1.4320 backed by 1.4350 and the 1.44-handle. Overnight trader will be eyeing data out of the Euro zone with the July producer price index on tap.

Where In The World Are American Jobs?

It’s pretty well known that American jobs are declining. The economy is tanking and the jobs that could keep us afloat are all heading abroad. The reason for this obviously is because it is much cost effective for US companies to outsource these jobs than to keep it in US itself. At one point in 2010, the unemployment rate was 9.6% and it was 9.1% in July 2011. The numbers are definitely mind boggling.

The factors listed by executives in choosing an outsourcing destination includes the following:

1. Labor cost: 79%
2. Technology and infrastructure capabilities: 62%
3. Skilled labor: 61%
4. Language Proficiency: 49%
5. Economic stability: 44%

India and China are among the top countries that we are losing our jobs to. As America loses it’s jobs there’s a lot of blame game being played as well. From a survey taken from a pool respondents, 31% believe it is due to the policies of the form President George W. Bush. 33% of the respondents believe that it is due to the policies of President Barack Obama.

We came across this infographic created by MBAProgramInfo.com which highlights the issue of jobs and unemployment very well. The infographic is laid out well and has enough information to give us an idea as to why we are losing jobs to other countries. For example, hiring a software engineer in India is relatively cheaper as compared to one in US. They speak english and they are relatively skilled. India currently stands at the very top in terms of US jobs being outsourced.

GBPJPY has certainly followed this descending channel; but it is hugging the trendline pretty close